U.S. athletes win gold and silver medals in women’s downhill at Vancouver. Photo: Flickr user Beachpiks

Our northern neighbors are concerned. Perhaps buoyed by hosting the Winter Olympics, a Canadian TV interviewer asked me about a “touchy” subject recently: Has America lost its mojo? How are Americans feeling these days? Are we going to be OK again?

I had to be honest that Americans are in the dumps. Many of us are experiencing the hardest times of our lives, and meanwhile China, India, and others seem to have bounced right back.

Our national gloom explains why the ruminations on America’s decline are coming fast and furious. Book titles tell the story: The Post American World, The End of Influence, When China Rules the World, Freefall.

It is bleak now, but America should step back from the ledge because the future is looking up. Here are 10 things to remember about America and decline:

1. America’s fate is in its own control

This is cold comfort given the dysfunction in Washington, but it is nonetheless important to remember that the decisions Americans make at home determine our fate far more than anything China or any other pivotal power does — including keeping its currency undervalued, as destructive as that is.

America can put itself in a position to thrive in a world with stronger powers by investing in its own future, and first and foremost in the innovation that drives economic growth. This includes funding basic research and development, improving education, reforming health care, and renewing infrastructure.

America also needs to trim and refocus the defense budget, rein in the budget deficit, and shift to renewable energy sources. All of these steps are easier said than done, but let’s put the onus for our fate where it belongs.

2. We are still number one

We shouldn’t forget that America is still far ahead of all other emerging and established powers by nearly every important measure. And we have demographics on our side. Because we welcome immigrants and because many parents are bravely choosing to have three kids or more, America’s population is set to grow over the coming decades.

Of the other major pivotal powers, only India can say the same. The rest are either already shrinking — Japan, Russia, much of Europe, and Brazil — or looking at a huge baby boom problem within 20 years: China.

3. Our relative decline is inevitable

Relative to other pivotal powers such as China and India, we are declining — the huge gap between the United States and the others is shrinking. That is a function of two factors completely out of American control: the size of their populations being many times larger than ours, and the fact that they are at earlier stages of their economic growth, still climbing out of poverty and moving people off subsistence farming.

There isn’t a causal connection—they are not growing because of our decline. One day, they will likely have economies larger than ours. But we can’t go around hoping that poor countries will stay poor. Moreover, their growth will lift us, too, if we make smart investments (see number 1) because their new middle-class consumers will buy quality American products.

4. Primacy isn’t what it used to be

It is not as important as it used to be for a power to remain on top by a huge margin. Countries used to acquire power by conquering each other, and in that world, primacy is a life or death matter. The contest today is to see who can grow and lure more innovative talent, and become energy independent first. Land grabs are a waste of time and money.

Sheer military power is also not enough anymore for America — or any other country — to keep its own population safe. Terrorist attacks, freakish weather events and lethal flu viruses are harming Americans — not other big countries. The United States will need to work with other nations to address those border-crossing evils whether we are on top or not.

5. Americans have it really good and will for generations

Here’s another key point to remember: China and India’s growth will not change living standards for the vast majority of Americans if we make the right choices at home. Even if China’s economy does grow to be larger than ours one day, there is no reason to think Americans will be worse off. We could even be better off. Look at the British — they enjoy very comfortable lives and take a lot more vacations since they gave up their empire.

The fact that the American middle class did not gain during the last expansion was as much the result of domestic policy favoring the wealthiest as it was new wage competition from abroad. A strong China or India will make our lives different, and America will not always get its way, but American standards of living will remain high if we deal with our demons at home.

6. Americans are safe

Americans enjoy an unimaginably high degree of safety from outside threats compared to most other peoples. We are protected by oceans, a strong military deterrent, and a stable society based on the rule of law. The growing strength of other powers will not change that fact.

7. The trajectories of future powers is unknowable

It seems that China, Brazil, and India are rising inexorably, and maybe they are. But maybe they aren’t. The Soviet Union looked like it would be around forever in 1988, and in 1990, Japan was seen as the undefeatable hegemon. We just don’t know, and can’t control, the futures of other big powers — which is yet another reason to focus on getting our own act together.

8. American leadership is vital, and everyone knows it

Even after eight years of stomach-churning foreign policy under the Bush administration, most countries acknowledge that American leadership is vital to solving major global problems and keeping order. If China could snap its fingers and halve America’s power, it is not clear it would — who would protect its oil tankers? No other power has the same credibility, capacity, and inclination to step into our shoes. China doesn’t want to lead, and other powers trust Beijing even less than they do Washington. America will thus continue to be influential even as its relative power declines.

9. Previous bouts of self-doubt have proven unjustified

As Atlantic correspondent James Fallows recently explained, Americans are prone to cyclical periods of self-doubt. Our worries have been part of American culture since the days of our founders. We have beaten ourselves up and written ourselves off on many past occasions including Sputnik in the 1950s, culture wars of the 1960s, oil crises of the 1970s, and Japan paranoia in the 1980s. The only difference now is a 24-hour news cycle that makes a profit by probing and sensationalizing our malaise.

10. We still have fundamental strengths

America doesn’t have nationwide broadband, consistent cell coverage, high-speed rail, or large-scale solar, though we need them. But it does have a high tolerance for failure, which encourages zany and sometimes very profitable ideas. We also have deep and broad capital markets that reward risk, although hopefully no longer in crazy financial instruments; great universities; creativity; diversity; and a willingness to embrace anyone who works hard.

So don’t count America out just yet. Instead, contact your senator. You know what to say.

- Nina Hachigian

U.S. President Barack Obama. Photo: WhiteHouse on Flickr

He probably won’t focus on it much in his State of the Union address, but President Obama is revolutionizing the core paradigm of American foreign policy. If he succeeds, our children and grandchildren will be set to thrive in the more multipolar era to come.

Think back a few years to the Bush Administration when the central strategic pillar of national security strategy was to maintain American primacy. To remain safe, the reasoning went, America had to continue to stay more powerful than all other countries by the existing, huge margin.

This strategy had a number of conceptual flaws. It suggested to the many rising powers, China, India, Brazil, Russia and others, that the United States would stand to benefit by their failure. That is largely false, and thus a needlessly antagonistic message that amplified existing distrust.

Moreover, the source of the most lethal and immediate threats to Americans was and is not strong countries but terrorists, viruses and global warming. Americans need the help of those same pivotal powers, and they need ours, to tackle those threats.

Reduce nuclear proliferation without Russia? Slow climate change without China? Good luck with that.

In the end, the primacy strategy failed to deliver. It tempted our leaders into a reckless war. It did not prevent North Korea from acquiring nuclear weapons. It did nothing to slow China’s influence, as was its implicit goal. And it helped wreck our relationship with Russia.

A fixation on primacy paradoxically undermined the influence and authority America did have in much of the world. But the Bush strategy was not exceptional, only exceptionally badly executed. For all previous administrations since WWII, American primacy has either been a goal, an assumption or both.

America is still the world’s only superpower, but from day one, President Obama rejected a single-minded quest for primacy as the organizing principle of our foreign policy. He signaled this in his inaugural address when he said “Our power alone cannot protect us.”

Later, in a speech in Moscow, he was more explicit about his great power strategy: “[G]iven our interdependence, any world order that tries to elevate one nation or group of people over another will inevitably fail. The pursuit of power is no longer a zero-sum game - progress must be shared.”

The Administration knows that the central challenge now is getting these other pivotal powers to solve problems, play by the rules, support international institutions and share the costs of providing for the global common good.

It’s still early days, but they’ve had some success so far with their approach, which I call strategic collaboration. China has agreed to limit its carbon intensity, though it must do more. And for the first time last year, China not only voted for tough U.N. sanctions against North Korea; it also enforced them.

Despite how neuralgic the issue is there, Russia decided to allow the United States to transport supplies through its territory into Afghanistan. The Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism, co-chaired by the United States and Russia, is up and running again. These nations and others agreed during the darkest days of the financial crisis to coordinate their macroeconomic moves.

Finally, Beijing and Moscow did recently join in a harsh rebuke that the International Atomic Energy Agency issued against Iran.

Of course, China and Russia, not to mention India and Brazil and others, need to do more to help solve global challenges. We will continue to have differences with these pivotal powers, some very heated, particularly in the areas of human rights and democracy.

But there is no quid pro quo. Washington can cooperate with Beijing and Moscow to contain swine flu or climate change and still press them, as President Obama has, for political reform.

Not everyone is happy with this shift in America’s foreign policy. Conservative commentators claim Obama officials are naïve to think that great powers will cooperate, and they accuse the Obama Administration of adjusting to the relative decline in American power rather than trying to stop it.

While the Administration is rightly updating our foreign policy to this new age of security interdependence, it is certainly true that American power is vital. America needs to retain significant influence in the international system to protect American interests and the liberal nature of the system.

Moreover, while it seems unlikely, China or some other big power could become an aggressive hegemon one day, and America must be prepared.

But it’s not enough to say America should continue to be strong. It takes controversial investments; convincing politicians to prioritize long-term success over short-term gain is never easy.

And that is where Obama’s domestic agenda comes in. What health care reform, investments in basic science, green technologies, banking regulation and renewing public education are all about is retooling America so it can thrive in the global economy. Every great power needs a great economy.

America will continue to be an indispensable nation, in many cases, the indispensable nation. Not because of its unassailable power, but because of its ideas, values, and leadership.

Nina Hachigian is the co-author of The Next American Century: How the US Can Thrive as Other Powers Rise and a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress.

Obama t-shirt at Shanghai bazaar. Photo: Flickr user Shazari

Ambassador S. Azmat Hassan is a former Ambassador of Pakistan to Malaysia, Syria and Morocco and Deputy Permanent Representative of Pakistan to the United Nations. He is currently an adjunct professor at Seton Hall University and is a contributing Worldfocus blogger.

Obama’s first visit as president to China elicited considerable curiosity among the Chinese, but Obama could not expect the generally rapturous welcome he has received in Europe.

The Chinese government saw to it that his visit was strictly controlled and choreographed. The student audience at the “town hall” meeting was made up of communist party members, who lobbed soft balls toward Obama. There was none of the raucousness or spontaneity one has come to expect in U.S. town hall meetings.

Similarly, the official talks with a confident and assertive President Hu Jintao appeared to avoid contentious issues. Human rights, Taiwan and Tibet were soft-pedaled by Obama. To his questions on the adverse effects on US-China trade of the artificially pegged reminbi, the Chinese currency, Hu Jintao was evasive.

Similarly, Obama got scant purchase out of him on Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons program. China is a major importer of Iranian oil and a major trading partner.

China is an emerging super power poised to surpass the United States in the next few decades. Current estimates suggest that China’s will equal the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2027 and in 2050 China’s GDP will be double that of the U.S.

These astonishing figures — plus China’s foreign exchange reserves which stand at a staggering $2.27 trillion — indicate why China is enjoying the sunshine of success. The wind is certainly at its back.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is indebted to China to the tune of almost $1 trillion, and rising. Worse still, the U.S. is borrowing largely from China and Japan at the rate of $2 billion per day.

Perhaps our Wall Street trained economic managers think there will never be a reckoning for this dizzying profligacy initiated in the last 8 years.

Granted, Obama is trying hard to stanch the hemorrhaging which the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are causing to America’s resources, and the financial crisis of last year. Obama is trying to put the economy on an even keel. A key ingredient will be to head for the exits in these two countries sooner rather than prolonging the agony. Let’s hope and pray he succeeds.

Meanwhile, a confident and assertive China has no need genuflect to the United States. If its march continues as predicted, the roles may be reversed.

Let’s get our children motivated to learn Mandarin. That language is on track to replace English as the common language of diplomacy and commerce. We have to adjust to new realities. Reform or perish!