Earlier in the week, there was a violent clash at the airport in Tegucigalpa when a plane carrying Zelaya was turned away. Competing protests have rocked the capital city.

Sandra Cuffe is an independent Canadian journalist currently in Tegucigalpa. On Monday, the day after the standoff at the airport, she joined Worldfocus to discuss the mood at the riots, the impact on daily life in Honduras and the range of possible outcomes.

Below, view a slideshow from recent protests, also by Sandra Cuffe:

Worldfocus also spoke with Greg Weeks, an associate professor of political science at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte and the editor of the journal The Latin Americanist, about the implications of the recent coup.

Worldfocus: What provoked the coup and did it come as a surprise?

Greg Weeks: The precise timing of the coup was provoked by President Zelaya attempting to go through with the vote about a constitutional commission even though the Supreme Court, Congress, and the armed forces had told him it was unconstitutional. The coup occurred on the Sunday of the scheduled vote.

Conflict between Zelaya and other major political actors in Honduras was long-standing and sometimes bitter. It was well known that Congress was working on formal accusations against Zelaya, and he had publicly criticized the idea of what he called a “technical coup.” Nonetheless, few observers expected a full military coup.

Worldfocus: Has public opinion swayed in either direction in Honduras? Did Hondurans support the referendum?

Greg Weeks: We know that Zelaya was unpopular at the time of the coup (with an approval rating of approximately 30 percent) but we do not know the levels of national support for his forced removal. Both sides claim massive support, but at least for now it is not possible to know for sure.

It is safe to say, though, that a majority of Hondurans did not support the referendum and he likely would have lost it.

Worldfocus: International reaction has been swift, with many (including the U.S. and Organization of American States) urging Zelaya’s return. Has this had any effect?

Greg Weeks: Yes, it put Micheletti and other coup supporters immediately on the defensive and quickly started to pinch the country economically. Plus, the fact that governments as ideologically distant as Colombia and Venezuela were united on this issue made it more difficult for anyone to claim there was ideological bias.

Worldfocus: What are Hugo Chavez’s interests?

Greg Weeks: His primary interest is having another regional ally like Zelaya remain in power. But he and other leftist presidents also have a strong interest in ensuring that other would-be coup makers get the message that international opinion is firmly against such actions (which, of course, is ironic given Chávez’s own background as a coup leader).

Worldfocus: And what of U.S. interests, and the possibility that the U.S. may cut off aid?

Greg Weeks: The U.S. has very little concrete at stake in this crisis, but it is the first Latin American crisis for President Obama, so he is interested in ensuring that his rhetoric of support for democracy and dialogue is taken seriously.

A full cut-off of aid would be a last ditch effort and is the main “stick” the United States wields. As a result, I think it is the least likely policy option, and would be used only if every single other possibility had been exhausted.

Worldfocus: In your opinion, how will the current stalemate end?

Greg Weeks: This crisis has been fluid and unpredictable, so I can’t really say much for certain. I do tend to think that there will be some sort of negotiated solution. There will be massive pressure, both from outside Honduras and inside (as the cutoff of aid from various sources squeezes the economy) for Micheletti to negotiate. Meanwhile, Zelaya knows that negotiation is the only way he can return to the country without invasion — which no one supports, despite Chávez’s comments on the topic.

Michelle Bachelet, the president of Chile.

Barack Obama’s historic election as the 44th president of the U.S. on Nov. 4 has received international attention from citizens and news media alike.

Here in the U.S., commentators have stated that his victory could happen “only in America.”

Obama himself stated in his 2004 address to the Democratic National Convention that “in no other country on earth is my story even possible.”

Greg Weeks is an associate professor of political science at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte and blogs at Two Weeks Notice, where he takes issue with such a characterization of Barack Obama’s victory and details what he believes are progressive elections in Latin America.

“Only” in America?

As I’ve watched and listened to U.S. media commentary, especially after the election, something has nagged at me. This has indeed been an historic election, but in the United States we try to claim that we are the first to have historic elections. It can happen, we say, “only in America.” I don’t have links, but heard it from both Chris Matthews and Chris Wallace–if you google “obama only in america,” you can get a feel for how broad the sentiment is.

In Latin America, I think of Evo Morales’ impressively large victory in Bolivia in 2005, followed shortly by Michelle Bachelet’s in Chile (remember that the U.S. has not yet elected a woman, unlike many other countries). What of Alberto Fujimori’s 1990 election in Peru (will we see an Asian elected president of the United States?)? Or if we look at class, rather than race, there is no doubt that Lula’s election in Brazil changed history–imagine an uneducated union activist running for president here.

It is truly remarkable that our president-elect is African American, and it says a lot about the progress being made in this country. But let us savor it without pretending that we’re the only ones who have made such progress.

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For more, read an article from The Economist about the phenomenon of American exceptionalism.

The views expressed by contributing bloggers do not reflect the views of Worldfocus or its partners.

Photo courtesy of Flickr user Fotograma! under a Creative Commons license.

Tanks in Gori, Georgia.

Russia has made headlines with its invasion of Georgia, arms sales to Iran and oil and military dealings with Venezuela. The country’s actions have triggered some media outlets to speculate on a new Cold War.

Greg Weeks is an associate professor of political science at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte and blogs at Two Weeks Notice, where he discusses Russia’s relationship with Latin America and it’s position in this new chapter — or not — of the Cold War narrative.

Russia and Latin America

The media is playing up the idea that we might be entering a new Cold War of some sort, which among other things entails deep Russian involvement in Latin America. Russia is playing this up, with Venezuela deals and military maneuvers, discussion of a closer relationship with Bolivia, and rumors about Cuba. Boz had a good recent post on the topic.

There is one point, however, that I never see mentioned but which is important and has historical precedent: Russia is primarily interested in the United States, and so all of these alliances are contingent upon relations with the U.S. If U.S.-Russia relations improved, Putin would feel no compunction about backing off and/or ignoring promises he’s made to Latin American leaders. The Soviets screwed Fidel Castro and humiliated him more than once. Putin doesn’t care about Latin America. He is not trying to “compete” in any significant way in the hemisphere, and likely won’t in the future either.

If I were a Latin American president, therefore, I would hop on the bandwagon as quickly as possible and get some goodies before they’re gone. My hunch is that Hugo Chávez is well aware, and so is successfully milking the situation while it lasts. I doubt he has any illusions about brotherhood with Russia (or Iran, for that matter). Thomas Shannon, who has been one of the few people in the Bush administration to talk sense about Latin America, argues that Russia-Venezuela ties are no threat and “aren’t likely to endure.”

So let’s see what signals the next administration sends to Russia. That will tell us a lot about what Russia does next in Latin America.

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The views expressed by contributing bloggers do not reflect the views of Worldfocus or its partners.

Photo courtesy of Flickr user onewmphoto under a Creative Commons license.