Schoolgirls outside Cairo’s Alabaster Mosque. Photo: Flickr user Ed Yourdon

The Arab world has over 350 million people and stretches from the Atlantic Ocean to the Persian Gulf. Unified by a common Arabic culture and history, these 25 countries are at varying levels of economic and political development.

But there seems to be a set of demographic issues that apply to many — if not all — of the nations in the Arab world. We take a deeper look at high birth rates and gender inequality and then compare them to other regions of the world.

Martin Savidge hosts Magda Abu-Fadil and Bernard Haykel to discuss these issues:

• Youth bulge: jobs for young people, emigration, political instability
• Gender gap: young women, variation across Arab states, political power
• Big picture: comparisons to other regions, replacement level, demographic transition

GUESTS:

Magda Abu-Fadil is director of the Journalism Training Program at the American University of Beirut (AUB) and has years of experience as a foreign correspondent and editor with international news organizations such as Agence France-Presse and United Press International.

Bernard Haykel is a professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University, where his research interests include contemporary politics, Arabian history and Islamic fundamentalism.

Credits:
Host: Martin Savidge
Producer: Ben Piven
Associate Producer: Mohammad Al-Kassim

. Traditional Chinese drummer takes part in a Global Day of Action on the environment. Photo: Greenpeace International

I want to write about China, but let me first take a moment to note that the leaders of the entire world are coming together, in the snow, to tackle a global threat. Yes, it’s chaotic and disappointing so far, but that such a gathering is taking place at all is somewhat amazing and hopeful.

The more each of us recognizes that we are world citizens as well as citizens of our nations, tribes, religions, etc, the better able we will be to find solutions to our common problems. If global warming has a silver lining, other than for Canadian farmers, it is that it encourages us to think in planetary terms.

Onto China. China has a lot of good reasons to demand all it can from the developed world at the Copenhagen summit. And the developed world needs to own up to its responsibility for past and current emission sins.

The U.S. has a long way to go to meet its own obligations, and we need to make up for the last eight years of irresponsible inaction. But the future of global warming belongs in large part to China.

The U.S. negotiator, Todd Stern, pointed out earlier in the summit that almost all the growth in emissions from now until 2030 will come from the developing world, half from China alone. At the end of the day, as a pivotal power, China has to be willing to sacrifice for the global common good.

In a recent report, I concluded that it is still rare for China to act proactively to solve global problems. But it has happened, as in the case of North Korea’s nuclear program — and on pandemics.

When it comes to global warming, with the international spotlight shining brightly, China did pledge to cut the amount of carbon dioxide emitted for each unit of its gross domestic product by 40 to 45 percent by 2020, compared with 2005 levels. That was a significant development, though not ambitious enough, according to many.

Now the sticking point seems to be “MRV.” China is refusing to have its targets be “measurable, reportable and verifiable.” Without that provision, other countries, most notably the U.S., will not know whether China is sticking to its commitment or not. China’s point of view is that the burden should be on the West to do more, not on them.

So what are China’s reasons for holding firm against developed world demands that they do more in a treaty on global warming?

• It’s the economy (and demography). The imperative to grow the Chinese economy, and safely manage its estimated 24 million unemployed (and thus hold onto political power) is an immediate mandate, requiring great energy resources, whereas the threat of global warming is more distant and will evolve more gradually. Moreover, the Chinese population is aging rapidly and could peak as early as 2020, which means that by 2035, China will be carrying an enormous elderly population. There is great pressure on China’s leaders to develop and grow the economy as quickly as possible.
• Equity. The Chinese argue that the West grew rich spewing carbon and that it is unfair to demand costly limitations from them at this stage in their development. Deborah Seligsohn explains: “Chinese scratch their heads. They know they live in tiny apartments, turn off all lights, wear three layers of clothing indoors in the winter, and only run the air conditioner on the hottest days. Then these Americans come to town on jets, blast the air conditioning and lecture them about their energy use.” The Chinese also argue that when Western nations import industrial and manufactured products en masse from China rather than producing them domestically, they effectively outsource their carbon emissions to China.
• Skepticism. The American Clean Energy and Security Act that passed in the U.S. House of Representatives earlier this year falls far short of where China thinks developed economies need to be. The Chinese are also skeptical about whether the United States will ultimately make it law and then implement it in a rigorous way. They also point out that the bill uses “offsets,” or credits for carbon that was not released but otherwise would have been, which China thinks is a politically expedient provision that could act as a major loophole.
• Suspicion. The belief that American demands for carbon reductions are motivated not by concern for the planet but by a desire to limit China’s growth and keep it weak continues to find some currency in China.
• Performance anxiety. China has set ambitious domestic targets for itself, as noted above. Yet the Chinese don’t want to commit to them internationally because they want to be able to outperform whatever they promise. They have a strong political incentive to exceed all targets. Beijing is also concerned that if they don’t make the targets, they won’t get credit for trying.
• Lagging self-perception. As it has happened so quickly, some Chinese leaders have not come to terms with the size of China’s impact. “It was like squeezing blood from a stone,” explains a senior U.N. official, requesting anonymity, “to even get the Chinese to realize even implicitly, let alone explicitly that they are now the world’s largest emitter.”
• Uncertainty. Climate targets being considered by the international community reach out to 2050. But China is likely to change between now and then in ways difficult to predict. The level of uncertainty is substantially higher than in most countries in the developing world and may contribute to a reluctance to commit internationally to long-term goals.
• Tactics. China may still be waiting to make its big move so it can “save the day.”
• Beijing’s limited leverage. While Beijing elites may prefer a more environmentally balanced growth structure, they sometimes can exert little control over provincial politicians who favor GDP growth at any cost.
• Wanting to keep its coalition together. China does not want to take actions that will separate it from its developing country caucus. China has worked hard to build relations with the developing world and does not want to be seen abandoning them but rather defending their interests in international arenas.

As I said, these are compelling reasons for trying to get the best deal possible. But they are not good enough to scuttle the possibility of a treaty that will help forestall the devastation a heating planet will visit on China, and every other part of the world.

I want to be hopeful and, generally, when heads of state show up, if things are going to happen, they happen. But in this case the divisions seem very deep.

And as much as the symbolism of more than 100 heads of state coming together is exciting, I worry they will bog down negotiations as much as help them. Still, here’s hoping China doesn’t want to pass up an excellent opportunity to look like the world’s savior.

Read much more at the Center for American Progress‘ climate change blog.

- Nina Hachigian

Environmentalists and others may balk at the world’s rapid population growth, as the global population is expected to surpass 9 billion by 2050 — but in Russia, the opposite is true.

Facing dual threats of low birth rates and soaring mortality rates, the Russian population is aging and dying, according to a recent report from the United Nations Development Programme.

Life expectancy in Russia is some 12 years less than life expectancy in the U.S. Russia lost more than 12 million people over the last 16 years, and may lose another 11 million by 2025.

In an effort to combat the trend, the Kremlin has launched a pro-natalist campaign, expanding maternity leave benefits and offering financial incentives to mothers with more than one child.

The population decline has also impacted Russia’s national discussions on reproduction and abortion.

Worldfocus.org’s weekly radio show explored the factors driving Russia’s population decline and its implications for Russian society and public policy.

Worldfocus anchor Martin Savidge hosted a panel of guests:

Paul Goble is a longtime specialist on ethnic and religious questions in Eurasia and blogs at “Window on Eurasia.” Most recently, he was director of research and publications at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy. Previously, he worked in various capacities at the U.S. State Department, the Central Intelligence Agency and the International Broadcasting Bureau, as well as at the Voice of America, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He has been decorated by the governments of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania for his work in promoting Baltic independence.

Vladimir Lenskiy is the New York bureau chief and correspondent for Russia’s Channel One television, the country’s oldest and largest television network with an audience of 100 million viewers throughout Russia and Eastern Europe. He has over a decade of experience as a reporter for Russia’s independent national television networks, including NTV (Nezavisimoye Televideniye), TVS and TV-6, a Moscow-based independent channel.

Louisa Vinton is a senior program manager at the United Nations Development Program’s Regional Bureau for Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States, where she is responsible for UNDP activities in seven countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Previously, Louisa worked for the Economist Intelligence Unit and as a senior research analyst for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty in Munich.

Photo courtesy of Flickr user eurutuf under a Creative Commons license.

Credits:
Host: Martin Savidge
Producers: Nicole E. Foster, Katie Combs and Bijan Rezvani

Environmentalists and others may balk at the world’s rapid population growth, as the global population is expected to surpass 9 billion by 2050 – but in Russia, the opposite is true.

Facing dual threats of low birth rates and soaring mortality rates, the Russian population is aging and dying, according to a recent report from the United Nations Development Programme.

Life expectancy in Russia is some 12 years less than life expectancy in the U.S. Russia lost more than 12 million people over the last 16 years, and may lose another 11 million by 2025.

In an effort to combat the trend, the Kremlin has launched a pro-natalist campaign, expanding maternity leave benefits and offering financial incentives to mothers with more than one child.

The population decline has also impacted Russia’s national discussions on reproduction and abortion.

Worldfocus.org’s weekly radio show explored the factors driving Russia’s population decline and its implications for Russian society and public policy.

Worldfocus anchor Martin Savidge hosted a panel of guests:

Paul Goble is a longtime specialist on ethnic and religious questions in Eurasia and blogs at “Window on Eurasia.” Most recently, he was director of research and publications at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy. Previously, he worked in various capacities at the U.S. State Department, the Central Intelligence Agency and the International Broadcasting Bureau, as well as at the Voice of America, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He has been decorated by the governments of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania for his work in promoting Baltic independence.

Vladimir Lenksy is the New York bureau chief and correspondent for Russia’s Channel One television, the country’s oldest and largest television network with an audience of 100 million viewers throughout Russia and Eastern Europe. He has over a decade of experience as a reporter for Russia’s independent national television networks, including NTV (Nezavisimoye Televideniye), TVS and TV-6, a Moscow-based independent channel.

Louisa Vinton is a senior program manager at the United Nations Development Program’s Regional Bureau for Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States, where she is responsible for UNDP activities in seven countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Previously, Louisa worked for the Economist Intelligence Unit and as a senior research analyst for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty in Munich.

Photo courtesy of Flickr user eurutuf under a Creative Commons license.

Worldfocus special correspondent Michael Greenspan and producers Yuval Lion and Ara Ayer explore Israel’s melting pot.

Take a walk down Tel Aviv’s most diverse street (video).