Tanks in Gori, Georgia. |
Russia has made headlines with its invasion of Georgia, arms sales to Iran and oil and military dealings with Venezuela. The country’s actions have triggered some media outlets to speculate on a new Cold War.
Greg Weeks is an associate professor of political science at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte and blogs at Two Weeks Notice, where he discusses Russia’s relationship with Latin America and it’s position in this new chapter — or not — of the Cold War narrative.
Russia and Latin America
The media is playing up the idea that we might be entering a new Cold War of some sort, which among other things entails deep Russian involvement in Latin America. Russia is playing this up, with Venezuela deals and military maneuvers, discussion of a closer relationship with Bolivia, and rumors about Cuba. Boz had a good recent post on the topic.
There is one point, however, that I never see mentioned but which is important and has historical precedent: Russia is primarily interested in the United States, and so all of these alliances are contingent upon relations with the U.S. If U.S.-Russia relations improved, Putin would feel no compunction about backing off and/or ignoring promises he’s made to Latin American leaders. The Soviets screwed Fidel Castro and humiliated him more than once. Putin doesn’t care about Latin America. He is not trying to “compete” in any significant way in the hemisphere, and likely won’t in the future either.
If I were a Latin American president, therefore, I would hop on the bandwagon as quickly as possible and get some goodies before they’re gone. My hunch is that Hugo Chávez is well aware, and so is successfully milking the situation while it lasts. I doubt he has any illusions about brotherhood with Russia (or Iran, for that matter). Thomas Shannon, who has been one of the few people in the Bush administration to talk sense about Latin America, argues that Russia-Venezuela ties are no threat and “aren’t likely to endure.”
So let’s see what signals the next administration sends to Russia. That will tell us a lot about what Russia does next in Latin America.
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